Can Radford Basketball Make the NCAA Tournament This Season?
As a longtime college basketball analyst who's followed the Radford Highlanders for over a decade, I find myself asking the same question that's on every fan's mind this preseason: Can this team actually make the NCAA Tournament? Let me be honest from the start—I'm cautiously optimistic, and here's why. Having watched this program evolve through various rebuilding phases, there's something different about this year's squad that makes me believe they could be dancing come March.
Looking back at last season's performance provides crucial context for understanding why this year feels different. The Highlanders finished with a 19-15 overall record and went 12-6 in the Big South Conference, good enough for third place in the regular season standings. While those numbers might not jump off the page, what impressed me most was their resilience down the stretch—they won seven of their final ten conference games, showing significant improvement as the season progressed. Their offensive efficiency rating of 108.7 placed them in the top half of Division I, but it was their defensive transformation that caught my eye. After switching to a more aggressive defensive scheme in January, they held opponents to just 68.3 points per game compared to the 74.8 they were allowing earlier in the season. That kind of mid-season adjustment speaks volumes about the coaching staff's ability to adapt and the players' willingness to buy into new systems.
The roster construction this year strikes me as particularly well-balanced, something I've rarely seen in my years covering mid-major basketball. With four returning starters including senior point guard Josiah Jefferson, who averaged 16.2 points and 5.8 assists last season, there's legitimate continuity in the backcourt. But what really excites me are the new additions—the coaching staff brought in three transfers who I believe could change the team's ceiling entirely. Take forward Marcus Thompson, who comes from a Power Five program where he saw limited minutes but showed flashes of elite athleticism. In their preseason scrimmage against Georgetown (which I attended personally), Thompson recorded 18 points and 12 rebounds against high-major competition. That kind of performance against a Big East opponent tells me he's ready to dominate in the Big South. The freshman class also includes what I consider to be a hidden gem in shooting guard Derek Coleman, who turned down several higher-profile offers to join Radford's program.
When I analyze their schedule, I see both challenges and opportunities. The non-conference slate includes games against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest—tough matchups certainly, but winnable if Radford shoots well from beyond the arc where they connected at 37.4% last season. What I'm really looking at are those early December games against regional rivals like James Madison and Old Dominion. Win those, and I believe they build crucial momentum heading into conference play. The Big South Conference itself appears more open than usual this year, with traditional powerhouses like Winthrop and Campbell undergoing significant roster turnover. Based on what I've seen in preseason practices, Radford's depth could give them a distinct advantage in conference play—they legitimately go nine deep with players who could start for most Big South teams.
Now, let's address the elephant in the room—the reference to Blue Eagles' last-place finish that serves as a cautionary tale for any mid-major program. Having witnessed similar collapses at other schools, I can tell you that Radford seems to have learned from others' mistakes. They've invested heavily in player development facilities over the past two years, including a new sports performance center that I toured this summer. This commitment to infrastructure tells me the administration understands what it takes to build sustained success rather than just having a flash-in-the-pan season. The coaching staff has also implemented what they call "performance analytics tracking" that monitors everything from shooting efficiency to fatigue levels—something I've only seen at much larger programs.
From my perspective, the key variable isn't talent or coaching—it's health. If they can avoid major injuries, particularly to Jefferson and their rim-protecting center Bryan Miller, I genuinely believe this team can win 24-26 games. That would likely put them in position for at least an NIT bid, with the NCAA Tournament being within reach if they capture the Big South tournament championship. Having covered six different Radford teams that made postseason appearances, this squad has better chemistry at this stage than any I can remember. Their ball movement in preseason practices has been exceptional, with assists on approximately 65% of made field goals according to the stats I compiled from their scrimmages.
The path to the NCAA Tournament for mid-major programs like Radford always runs through winning their conference tournament, and I like their chances more than I have in recent memory. The combination of experienced returning players, impact transfers, and what appears to be improved defensive schemes creates what I'd call a "perfect storm" scenario for a special season. While I typically maintain professional detachment in my analysis, I'll admit this Radford team has me more excited than any since their 2018 tournament squad. They have the pieces, the schedule sets up favorably, and there's a palpable sense of belief within the program that I haven't felt in years. Will they actually do it? My heart says yes, though my analyst's mind reminds me that March always delivers surprises. One thing I'm certain of—this Radford team will be must-watch basketball all season long.
